Metro Manila’s condominium market ended 2025 with a vacancy rate of 24.7%, according to Colliers Philippines. Between 79,200 and 82,900 completed units remain unsold, based on different estimates. Leechiu Property Consultants cites the higher number in its first-half 2026 report, while developers prefer the lower figure. Either way, the message is clear: “don’t buy because there’s glut in Manila right now.”
The shorthand is incorrect for at least three key districts in the city and downplays the issues in two others. A vacancy rate is just an average, which can obscure important details that buyers need: the exact submarket of a specific unit. Makati CBD, Rockwell Center, and Ortigas Center have vacancy rates below 15%, while the Bay Area exceeds 50%. This isn’t just variation; it’s multiple markets grouped under a single label.
This piece explains where the numbers differ, why they do, and what it means for your decision to buy in 2026.
The Headline Number vs. the Submarket Reality
Two Counts, One Story
Two major property consultancies in the country disagree on the number of unsold condominium units. Colliers Philippines reported 79,200 unsold units in Metro Manila by the end of 2025, with a vacancy rate of 24.7%, expected to reach about 25% in 2026 before dropping to 23.9% in 2027. In contrast, Leechiu Property Consultants found 82,900 unsold units in its first-half 2026 report, showing a difference of nearly 3,700 units due to different methods of counting. About 30,000 of these unsold units are ready for occupancy, which is more relevant to buyers than preselling figures, as RFO units are currently competing for tenants and buyers.
What the Average Actually Blends
The average vacancy rate for the metro includes both a Bay Area tower still dealing with the POGO exodus and a Rockwell Center unit that has qualified tenants ready to move in. Colliers’ submarket data shows vacancy rates over 50% in the Bay Area, compared to less than 15% in Makati CBD, Rockwell Center, and Ortigas Center, revealing a significant difference within the overall metro figure. Viewing “Metro Manila condo vacancy” as a single number instead of multiple figures is a major misstep for buyers using this data.
Why the Glut Narrative Gets Used the Way It Does
None of this means the oversupply isn’t real. Inventory life — the time it would take to sell off unsold stock at the current sales rate — peaked at 13.4 years in Q2 2025, a concerning number that developers have tried to reduce with strong promotional campaigns, which lowered it to about 8 years by Q4. These campaigns, along with media reports about the “condo glut,” are often seen as city-wide discounts. While they are real, they mainly focus on certain submarkets — and a buyer who thinks the discount is universal will be disappointed when trying to negotiate in Rockwell.
Key Takeaways
- Metro-wide vacancy (24.7%) and unsold-unit counts (79,200–82,900) differ by source and methodology — both point the same direction, but neither applies evenly across the metro.
- Makati CBD, Rockwell Center, and Ortigas Center all run under 15% vacancy; the Bay Area runs above 50%.
- Inventory life fell from 13.4 years to roughly 8 after developers ran aggressive promotions — concentrated in the oversupplied submarkets, not everywhere.
- Low vacancy signals proven, absorbed demand — it doesn’t guarantee price appreciation.
Terms Used in This Article
- Vacancy rate
- The share of completed, available condo units that are unsold or untenanted at a given point in time.
- Inventory life
- How many years it would take to sell all currently unsold stock at the prevailing sales pace — a better distress signal than vacancy alone.
- Net absorption
- The net change in occupied/sold units over a period, after accounting for new supply entering the market.
- Take-up rate
- The share of a project’s or submarket’s available units that have been sold or leased, often tracked by income segment.
At a Glance: The Five Submarkets Compared
Here’s a complete comparison of vacancy, rents, yields, buyers, and market directions. Use this as a reference for the detailed sections below, which explore each aspect further.
| Submarket | Vacancy | Rent Range (1BR/mo) | Gross Yield | Dominant Buyer | Outlook |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Makati CBD (Salcedo/Legazpi) | <15% | ₱45,000–55,000 | 5.0–7.0% | Mid-income to upper, end-user & investor | Stable, low leverage for buyers |
| Rockwell Center | <15% | ₱60,000–75,000 | 5.1–6.9% | Upper-income, luxury end-user | Stable, premium holds |
| Ortigas Center (core) | <15% | Comparable to Makati core | ~5–7% | Mid to upper-income | Stable, transit-anchored |
| Bay Area | >50% | Discounted, falling | Variable, distressed | Speculative / bargain investor | Recovery tied to new tenant base |
| Alabang / Muntinlupa (mid-market) | Elevated, supply-driven | ₱27,000–40,000 | 5.2–8.0% | Mid-income, price-sensitive | Pressured until pipeline absorbs |
Where Vacancy Is Actually Under 15%: Makati CBD, Rockwell, Ortigas Center
The Vacancy Comparison
Colliers’ data shows that Makati CBD, Rockwell Center, and Ortigas Center have less than 15% vacancy, while the metro average is around 25%. This significant difference indicates a landlord’s market compared to a buyer’s market, with these areas only twenty minutes apart by car.
The Rental-Rate Evidence
Vacancy rates can sometimes be misleading, so it’s important to confirm that pricing aligns with the numbers. It does. In Salcedo Village, a one-bedroom unit rents for around ₱45,000–₱55,000 per month, with gross yields between 5.0–7.0% at prices of ₱280,000–₱350,000 per square meter. Legazpi Village is slightly lower at ₱45,000–₱52,000 monthly, with a gross yield of 5.2–6.8%. Rockwell Center charges higher, with rents from ₱60,000–₱75,000 a month and prices of ₱420,000–₱520,000 per square meter, while yields remain at 5.1–6.9%. This pricing indicates a stable market, as landlords with low vacancy rates aren’t reducing rents; they’re maintaining them because they can.
Why These Three Held
Three factors distinguish these submarkets from the rest of the metro. First, they benefit from transit and mall integration—Ortigas Center, for instance, is connected to two MRT-3 stations and directly links to Shangri-La Plaza and Robinsons Galleria, which a new tower in a less-connected area cannot match. Second, most of the inventory in these three districts is already built and occupied, so they aren’t facing competition from new preselling units like in Alabang or the Bay Area. Third, the demand here is largely from buyers and tenants who remained active during the downturn—mid-income buyers made up 77% of net take-up nationally in Q3 2025, and the luxury segments performed better than the overall market even as sales slowed.
Low Vacancy Isn’t the Same as No Risk
None of this means that Makati CBD, Rockwell, or Ortigas Center are completely safe investments. A sub-15% vacancy rate indicates occupancy, not necessarily price trends — a unit can remain fully rented while still losing value if a seller overpaid before. What a low vacancy rate really shows is that you’re investing in established demand rather than speculating on future demand. This presents a different level of risk compared to buying properties in a submarket still dealing with excess supply — but it doesn’t guarantee that prices will go up.
| District | 1BR Rent/mo | ₱/sqm | Gross Yield |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salcedo Village, Makati | ₱48,000–55,000 | ₱280,000–350,000 | 5.0–7.0% |
| Legazpi Village, Makati | ₱45,000–52,000 | ₱260,000–330,000 | 5.2–6.8% |
| Rockwell Center | ₱60,000–75,000 | ₱420,000–520,000 | 5.1–6.9% |
Where the Glut Really Lives: Bay Area and Alabang/Muntinlupa
Bay Area’s POGO-Driven Collapse
The Bay Area’s vacancy rate surpassed 50% by 2025, significantly higher than the metro average and more than triple that of Makati CBD, Rockwell, and Ortigas Center. This is due to a specific situation: the rental demand was largely driven by POGO (Philippine Offshore Gaming Operator) employees, and when the government shut down the industry, these tenants left quickly. This creates a demand-side issue — the units are not the problem, but the tenant base that filled them has disappeared, and a new one has not yet emerged to take its place.
Alabang/Muntinlupa’s Supply Flood
Alabang and Muntinlupa are facing a challenge with too many new condos being built while demand remains limited. Condo stock is expected to increase by about 49% — from 5,660 units in 2023 to around 8,440 by 2026 — with an additional 2,780 units still planned. This large influx of new properties is arriving in a market where demand isn’t keeping up, partly due to job losses from POGO departures and the rising impact of AI on BPO hiring.
Same Symptom, Different Diagnosis
The vacancy rate alone doesn’t clarify which problem you’re dealing with, but this distinction is crucial for timing. A demand-side collapse like in the Bay Area improves when a new tenant base moves in, relying on broader economic and policy conditions beyond any single building’s control. In contrast, a supply-side issue like in Alabang improves as the market absorbs existing units, which is a more trackable process: you can count the incoming units and monitor the absorption rate to estimate a timeline. This process is easier to analyze than waiting for a replacement for POGO to arrive in the Bay Area.
The Premium Exception Inside Alabang
Alabang’s mid-market segment, competing with similarly priced units in Quezon City and Pasay in the ₱3.5–7 million range, is the main area for leasing competition and resale pressure. In contrast, the premium and luxury segment shows different trends: two-bedroom units still rent for ₱75,000–₱80,000 a month, while luxury properties exceed ₱200,000 monthly, with net yields from 5.2% to 8.0%. Alabang’s demand drivers, like access to SLEX and Skyway, and a strong BPO and residential base, remain, but they don’t apply evenly across all price tiers being built currently.
Bay Area
Cause: Demand-side collapse — POGO exodus removed the tenant base.
Evidence: Vacancy above 50% through 2025.
Outlook: Recovery depends on a new tenant base materializing — harder to time.
Alabang / Muntinlupa
Cause: Supply-side flood — stock up ~49% (5,660 → 8,440 units).
Evidence: ~2,780 more units still in the pipeline.
Outlook: Recovers as pipeline absorbs — trackable, more analyzable timeline.
The Ortigas Center vs. “Wider Ortigas” Example — The Core Hyperlocal Lesson
What Ortigas Center Actually Is
When Colliers reports less than 15% vacancy for “Ortigas Center,” they refer to a specific area: about 2 million square meters of established CBD, supported by two MRT-3 stations, direct connections to Shangri-La Plaza and Robinsons Galleria, and a group of fully leased LEED-certified towers.
What Gets Marketed Under the Same Name
Not all listings labeled “Ortigas” offer the same thing. Kapitolyo, Capitol Commons, and the C5 Corridor/Parklinks development are marketed under the Pasig/Ortigas area and are worth attention from investors. However, they represent different products at various development stages, not just discounted spaces in the same central business district.
The Track Record Gap
The core has achieved its low vacancy through effort. During a downturn in the Metro Manila office market, Ortigas Center was one of only two business districts, along with Bonifacio Global City, where vacancies actually decreased. This resilience is evident in its long history of occupied, income-generating buildings; newer developments haven’t had the time to show the same results, regardless of their potential.
Pricing as Proof
The price difference highlights the distinction between the two areas. Pasig’s median price is about ₱167,000 per square meter, while Kapitolyo’s higher tier is approximately ₱184,000 — both significantly lower than Ortigas Center pricing. This isn’t just a discount on Ortigas; it’s a different investment with newer properties, a unique demand, and a value that relies on the C5 Corridor and Capitol Commons developing as the core has, without a guarantee that this will happen.
The Transferable Rule
The lesson applies to Ortigas and similar areas like Makati, where you find established places like Salcedo and Legazpi alongside less developed areas further out. BGC also has a mix of a developed core and a growing outer area. When a listing names a district, the key question is not just “which district,” but rather “which blocks, which building, and how far to the nearest MRT station or mall.” A submarket name can cover both a well-established core and a developing area that shares the same zip code.
Before You Trust a District Name — Check This
- How many minutes on foot to the nearest MRT/LRT station or anchor mall?
- Is the building already occupied, or is it still preselling into an unproven micro-location?
- How many years has this specific pocket had occupied, income-producing buildings — not the district as a whole?
- Does the listing’s “district” name match the core, or a fringe area marketed under the same umbrella?
What This Means for a Buyer or Investor Right Now
Negotiating Leverage Runs by Submarket, Not by City
The main takeaway is that real negotiating power, like better payment terms or discounts, is found in submarkets with excess inventory. Developers who reduced inventory time from 13.4 years to about 8 did this mainly in the Bay Area and Alabang’s mid-market sector, not in Rockwell. Expecting significant discounts in a Makati CBD or Ortigas Center resale deal, based on overall metro-wide trends, will likely lead to disappointment, as sellers in buildings with less than 15% vacancy don’t feel the same urgency to lower prices.
The Financing Angle
This situation also applies to lending, which buyers might not expect until they are in the middle of a transaction. Banks usually set lower appraisal values and loan-to-value ratios for units in areas with high vacancies and for preselling towers that haven’t sold yet, as these are seen as riskier collateral. For example, financing is generally easier for resale units in occupied, low-vacancy buildings like Rockwell or Ortigas Center compared to preselling units in oversupplied areas. It’s important to verify this with your bank before finalizing a price. Additionally, financing costs are affected by the BSP’s rate decisions, regardless of the submarket you’re purchasing in, so it’s wise to keep an eye on both.
Yield vs. Capital Preservation, by Submarket
These are different types of investments. Seeking returns in a discounted Bay Area property or a mid-market Alabang tower involves a recovery timeline that is uncertain. On the other hand, paying more for a property in Rockwell or Ortigas Center is a safer investment — you are investing in a submarket that has shown it maintains occupancy and pricing even during tough times. Both strategies have their merits; confusing them can lead to a yield-focused investor feeling let down in Rockwell, or a capital-preservation buyer being caught off guard in the Bay Area.
A Due-Diligence Checklist Before You Buy “In Metro Manila”
Three key questions should be prioritized over the metro headline: What is the vacancy rate for the specific submarket? What are the occupancy and tenant-turnover rates for this building? And how much new competition is expected within one to two kilometers in the next 12–24 months? A unit may appear to meet average standards but could be close to a new development that will significantly increase local inventory.
What This Means for Different Buyers
An end-user buying to live in the unit should focus more on lifestyle and commute than an investor would, as they are not renting it out; therefore, submarket vacancy is less important than finding a suitable building and location. A yield-focused investor must analyze the specific submarket with accurate rental comparables instead of relying on average figures before considering a discount as a good deal. An OFW buyer purchasing from abroad faces greater risks because it is difficult to verify a building’s occupancy and a developer’s delivery record from a distance; thus, relying on a local resource for verification is crucial when unable to visit the property personally.
The Metro Manila Condo Buyer’s Due-Diligence Checklist
A free 7-page PDF covering all six verification layers from this article — submarket vacancy checks, DHSUD License to Sell and title verification, a fillable closing-cost worksheet with real tax rates, developer track-record questions, unit inspection points, and post-purchase red flags to walk away from. Enter your email to get the PDF instantly.
Not Sure Which Submarket Actually Fits Your Goal?
Metro-wide averages won’t tell you whether a specific building is a landlord’s market or a glut. U-Property PH can help you check the submarket, the building, and the pipeline before you reserve.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is it still a bad time to buy in Metro Manila?
It depends entirely on which submarket. Buying preselling stock in a still-oversupplied submarket like the Bay Area or Alabang’s mid-market tier carries real timing risk. Buying an already-occupied resale unit in Makati CBD, Rockwell, or Ortigas Center is a fundamentally different transaction, closer to a landlord’s market than a distressed one.
Will vacancy stay low in Makati CBD, Rockwell, and Ortigas Center?
There’s no guarantee, but the underlying drivers — established transit access, already-absorbed inventory, resilient mid-income-and-up demand — are structural rather than cyclical, which is why these three submarkets held through a downturn that hit the rest of the metro hard.
Is Alabang worth it right now?
It depends on the price tier. The mid-market segment competing with Quezon City and Pasay is genuinely oversupplied. The premium and luxury tiers are still finding real demand, with net yields running 5.2–8.0%.
How is “Ortigas” different from “Ortigas Center” in a listing?
Ortigas Center refers to the established, transit-connected CBD core with a long occupancy track record. “Ortigas” in a broader listing often includes Kapitolyo, Capitol Commons, or the C5 Corridor — genuinely promising areas, but newer and less proven than the core, and typically priced lower for that reason.
What’s the single biggest mistake buyers make with the “condo glut” headline?
Treating a metro-wide vacancy number as if it applies evenly everywhere. It doesn’t — vacancy runs from under 15% in some submarkets to over 50% in others, and the right move depends entirely on which one a specific unit sits in.
Should I wait for prices to drop further before buying?
In the glutted submarkets, further promotional activity is plausible given how much unsold inventory remains. In the low-vacancy submarkets, there’s little pricing pressure pushing sellers to discount, so waiting mostly means waiting — not necessarily buying cheaper later.
| Pasig City Investor Deep Dive: Ortigas, Kapitolyo, and the C5 Corridor The full submarket-by-submarket breakdown behind this article’s Ortigas Center vs. wider Ortigas example. | → |
| Is Vertis North Still a Buy in 2026? A Data-Driven Update The same submarket-not-metro-average approach applied to Quezon City’s newest CBD. | → |
| Cap Rate, Rental Yield & Cash-on-Cash Return in PH Real Estate The yield math behind this article’s yield-vs-capital-preservation framing. | → |
| BSP Interest Rate Moves in Q3 2026: What It Means for Mortgage Rates and Buyer Affordability The financing-angle context behind this article’s LTV and appraisal points. | → |
| The Peso Just Hit a Record Low. Here’s What That Actually Means for Buying Property Right Now. The macro backdrop worth reading alongside this article’s submarket-level view. | → |
This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, financial, or professional advice. Market conditions, laws, regulations, and government fees change. Always consult a licensed real estate broker, lawyer, or tax professional for advice specific to your situation.
Sources
- BusinessWorld, “Manila condo oversupply seen keeping vacancy high this year — Colliers” (Feb. 2026). bworldonline.com
- Manila Bulletin, “Metro Manila condo vacancy to peak near 25% before relief in 2027” (Feb. 2026). mb.com.ph
- Gulf News, “Manila Condo Market Repricing in 2026: Oversupply, Vacancy Risks and Opportunities” (2026). gulfnews.com
- Business Mirror, “Keeping an eye on Ortigas Center’s redefined skyline” (March 2026). businessmirror.com.ph
- Colliers Philippines, “Ortigas Center: A business district remarkably reinvented.” colliers.com
- Inquirer Business, “The upside in an uneven condo market” (2026). business.inquirer.net
- Franchise Manila, “2026 Makati Condo Rental Yield Report (Salcedo, Legazpi, Rockwell)” (Dec. 2025). franchisemanila.com
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