Philippine Property Market Q3 2026: What the Latest Reports Say About Prices, Vacancy, and Demand

Metro Manila sold 8,454 condominium units in the third quarter of 2026, a 17% increase from the second quarter. However, around 80,000 units are still unsold. The central bank’s latest house price index shows the slowest growth on record, and the peso reached a new low in October. These figures do not contradict each other.

Together, they depict a market where buyers are coming back, mainly for finished units with favorable terms, while developers delay launches and prices outside Metro Manila decrease. This overview of the Philippine property market in Q3 2026 summarizes the latest reports from Leechiu Property Consultants, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), and Colliers Philippines regarding prices, vacancy, demand, and their implications for buyers, investors, landlords, and sellers.

Updated October 25, 2026. We will update this page when Colliers’ Q3 report and the BSP’s Q3 price index come out.

Q3 reports are released at different times, and official data takes longer to arrive. Here’s the status of each major source as of October 25.

The gap is important for reading headlines. The BSP’s price index lags by about three months, so the most recent data is from April to June. The Q3 sales and inventory figures are from Leechiu.

The Headline: +0.4%, the Slowest Growth on Record

The BSP’s Residential Property Price Index increased by only 0.4% year on year in the second quarter, down from 4.5% in the first quarter and 7.5% a year earlier, marking the slowest growth since 2019. Prices changed very little from the previous quarter, with a rise of just 0.1%. This overall average masks two markets that are moving in different directions.

Condos Up 6.0%, Houses Down 4.1%

Condo prices increased by 6.0% from last year, marking their fourth consecutive quarter of growth. In contrast, house prices, which include single-detached homes, townhouses, and duplexes, dropped by 4.1%, their first annual decline, both within and outside the NCR.

Metro Manila Held Up; the Provinces Didn’t

NCR prices increased by 5.2%, quicker than in Q1, while prices outside NCR decreased by 2.7%, marking their first annual drop. This decline was widespread. The rest of Greater Manila went from +9.7% in Q1 to −3.0%, and only Metro Mindanao saw an increase in growth.

Bank lending shows that loans for residential real estate increased by 11.0% in NCR but declined by 0.1% elsewhere.

Why the Price Index and Real Deals Don’t Match

If condo prices increased by 6%, why are developers giving cash discounts of up to 60% on completed units? These numbers reflect different aspects. The BSP’s index is based on bank appraisals for new housing loans and doesn’t account for the price a cash buyer can negotiate for an unsold unit or the value of a long-term downpayment plan. Leechiu mentions that while capital values are still high, discounts and flexible terms help sell units. For buyers, the list price is just a starting point, not the actual market price.

Leechiu’s briefing reports that Metro Manila condos sold 8,454 units, the highest number for 2026 so far.

Ready-for-Occupancy Sales Up 89%, Pre-Selling Down 26%

The mix is more important than the total. Sales of ready-for-occupancy (RFO) units increased by 89% compared to last year, but pre-selling sales dropped by 26%. Buyers prefer units they can see and move into immediately. This desire stems from past delays and the fact that a finished unit can generate rent right away, while a downpayment on a pre-sold unit earns nothing during construction.

What’s Driving the Recovery

Leechiu attributes the improvement mostly to developers and the government addressing the affordability and financing issues, not a general increase in demand.

• Developer terms. RFO downpayments up to 60 months, deferred payments up to 120 months, and cash discounts of 60%. Pre-selling projects allow downpayments up to 72 months and promos of 50%.
• Pag-IBIG financing. Promo rates of 4.5% for loans above the socialized housing ceiling up to ₱2.5 million and 5.75% for loans up to ₱10 million, fixed for three years, valid until December 31, 2026.
• Affordable housing. Economic and affordable projects, supported by the government’s 4PH program, significantly increased first-half take-up. Condos priced ₱1.8 million to ₱3.6 million constituted nearly two-thirds of this, according to the Daily Tribune.

Large developers have also been affected: the combined pre-sales of Ayala Land, SM Prime, Robinsons Land, and Megaworld dropped by 7% compared to last year in the first half. Analysts at AB Capital Securities question whether sales can stay close to 8,500 units per quarter after the promotions end.

80,000 Unsold Units, or 28 Months of Supply

Unsold inventory dropped to around 80,000 units in Q3 from a high of 82,900. At the current sales rate, this means 28 months of supply, which is how long it would take to sell all available units without new launches. While there’s been an improvement, there are still over two years’ worth of stock.

Where the Inventory Is Stuck

The overhang is uneven. About two-thirds of unsold units are priced between ₱4 million and ₱12 million, in the Upper Middle (₱4–7 million) and Upscale (₱7–12 million) categories. Many were built for investors who wanted to rent them out, linking inventory to the vacancy issue. Units under ₱4 million are selling more quickly.

Developers Are Cutting Launches

New launches dropped by 39% in Q3, with around 90% being Upscale. Colliers describes this slowdown as a strategic move: developers are selling existing stock before creating new inventory. This is why the overall inventory is decreasing.

Vacancy Heads for a Record 25.6%

Inventory and vacancy are not the same. Inventory refers to unsold units from developers, while vacancy means completed units that are not occupied, including those bought by investors who can’t rent them out. Colliers predicts that condo vacancy in Metro Manila will reach a high of 25.6% by the end of 2026, before starting to decrease in 2027 as fewer projects are finished. It also expects the Bay Area to become the largest condo market, surpassing Fort Bonifacio by the end of the year.

Condo rents hardly changed in Q3. Here are Leechiu’s average rents per square meter:

At current prices, rents yield 3.4% to 4.7% on primary units, as stated by Leechiu. Buyers who pay in cash and get big discounts from developers do better, earning yields of 3.8% to 5.1%, since the discount reduces the purchase price while the rent remains unchanged.

Gross yield exaggerates what an owner actually earns, since expenses like dues, vacancies, management fees, and maintenance are deducted from the rent.

At under 3% net, a financed rental unit costs more than the loan itself. Pag-IBIG’s rates start at 4.5% outside socialized housing, while bank rates are higher. This is why Leechiu points out compressed yields as a major challenge and why buying below list price is crucial for rental success. For information on BGC rents and suitable units, check our BGC and Taguig investor guide. To learn about rental tax, refer to our guide on rental income tax in the Philippines.

The sales recovery occurred even as borrowing costs rose, and this pressure grew after the quarter ended.

BSP Raises Its Policy Rate to 5.50%

On October 22, the BSP raised its policy rate by 50 basis points to 5.50%, the largest hike since February 2023 and its fourth increase in a row. This rate is now 125 basis points higher than before the Middle East conflict began in March. With inflation at 7.2% in September, the BSP is ready for more actions at its meeting on December 17.

Bank housing loans adjust their rates at the end of each fixing period, meaning new borrowers and those with soon-expiring fixed rates will notice this first. Before the rate hike, banks were offering around 6.25% to 8.75%. Our overview of BSP interest rate changes in Q3 2026 illustrates how each increase affects monthly payments.

The Peso at a Record Low

The peso closed at a record ₱63.52 to the dollar on October 22, marking its third straight record low. For OFWs and other foreign currency earners, a weaker peso means their dollars, riyals, or dirhams stretch further for downpayments or amortization. However, for developers, this raises the cost of imported construction materials, increasing prices for future projects despite discounts on existing inventory. We discussed both sides when the peso first hit a record low in September.

How Q3 Compares With Mid-Year

Our mid-year look at the Metro Manila property market covered the first half, highlighting that unsold inventory reached 82,900 units. In Q3, there were two changes: sales increased for ready-for-occupancy units, and borrowing costs rose more quickly than expected. Leechiu also points out inflation and political uncertainty as challenges.

The Office Market

Office demand affects condo rents in business districts, as many tenants work nearby. Prime Philippines reports Q3 office leasing at 53,200 sqm, stable since Q2, with occupancy at 85% and average rent dropping to ₱895 per sqm per month, the lowest in about ten years. While steady leasing supports CBD rental demand, it isn’t increasing quickly enough to reduce the condo surplus.

Buyers

If you’re buying a home to live in, you have a strong negotiating position, especially for unsold RFO units priced between ₱4–12 million, where there are many options. Check the full payment schedule and total contract price, not only the discount. Before accepting a promo, ask these questions:

Investors and Current Owners

With gross yields of 3.4% to 4.7% and higher loan rates, buying a unit at list price relies on appreciation rather than rental income. Cash buyers can benefit more by negotiating lower prices for ready-for-occupancy units in areas with strong tenant demand.

For owners considering selling, a resale unit faces competition from 80,000 developer units with better terms. If your unit is rented at a fixed rate, keeping it until 2027 might be cheaper than selling now. If your rate is about to change and the unit is vacant, calculate the costs before the December BSP meeting.

Landlords

With vacancy rates reaching 25.6%, units priced above market remain empty. In the example above, one month of vacancy costs ₱26,670, which is more than the total savings from a ₱2,000 monthly rent reduction over a year (₱24,000). Our guide on how to price your rental unit explains comparables and timing.

Sellers

Price based on developers, not what your neighbor asked in 2023. For resale listings, you need an advantage: lower price, better unit or location, or quick sale. Our guide on how long it takes to sell property in the Philippines provides realistic timelines.

OFWs

A low peso makes foreign earnings go further, and Pag-IBIG’s promo rates last until December 31. The risk is two-sided: if the peso strengthens after you take a peso loan, each remittance pays for less of it. Focus on what you can manage, like the price, payment schedule, and fixing period, instead of trying to time the exchange rate.

Three questions will determine if Q3 was a significant change or just a temporary boost: will sales stay steady after incentives end, will vacancy reach its peak on time, and how much the BSP will adjust rates.

S&P Global Ratings believes a strong recovery may not happen until late 2027. In the meantime, the market will favor patient and well-funded buyers while penalizing overpriced listings. We will update this page with new reports as they are released.

Are property prices in the Philippines going down in 2026?

Nationally, they’ve nearly stopped rising: the BSP’s index grew 0.4% year on year in Q2 2026, the slowest on record. House prices fell 4.1% and prices outside Metro Manila fell 2.7%, while condo prices rose 6.0%.

What is the condo vacancy rate in Metro Manila?

Colliers Philippines projects a record 25.6% by the end of 2026, with vacancy expected to start declining in 2027 as fewer projects are completed.

Is now a good time to buy a condo in Metro Manila?

End-users and cash buyers have unusual leverage, with about 80,000 unsold units and RFO discounts of up to 60%. Investors who need a loan face gross yields of 3.4% to 4.7%, below most loan rates, so the purchase price matters more than usual.

How long will it take to clear Metro Manila’s condo oversupply?

At the Q3 2026 sales pace, about 28 months, according to Leechiu Property Consultants. S&P Global Ratings says a significant rebound may not come until late 2027.

How does the BSP’s October 2026 rate hike affect home buyers?

The policy rate rose to 5.50% on October 22. New bank borrowers and owners whose fixed rates expire soon feel it first. Pag-IBIG’s 4.5% and 5.75% promo rates run until December 31, 2026.